The day after Bitcoin (BTC) had reached $66980; I used the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) to find out {that a} break beneath $59K would ideally go to $53K+/2K earlier than the cryptocurrency would stage its subsequent rally to $90K+. See here. That break occurred, however BTC solely reached as little as $58K on October 27 and is now basically again on the scene of the crime.
Because the market doesn’t have to succeed in excellent draw back goal zones, particularly not in Bull markets the place “upside surprises and draw back disappoints”, the query is, “has BTC already bottomed for wave-ii and is it now able to rock n roll to $90K+, or does it have one final trick up its sleeve earlier than we see that transfer?” Determine 1 exhibits the 2 choices we now have.
Determine 1. Bitcoin each day charts with detailed EWP rely and technical indicators.
A break beneath final week’s $58128 low is required to substantiate a extra advanced wave-ii to ideally $53,4K.
Determine 1A exhibits the Bullish possibility for BTC. It means wave-ii did the minimal required retrace as there have been three (inexperienced) waves down from the current all-time excessive (ATH), and corrections are at a minimal comprised of three waves. However, corrections also can turn out to be extra advanced and tag on one other set of three waves. Or, as I at all times say to my premium crypto trading members, “after three waves down, at all times count on no less than three waves again up.” Thus far, BTC has achieved three waves again up, labeled in Determine 1B as (gray) minute a, b, c. Thus the present rally can nonetheless be a counter-trend rally/bounce to ideally as excessive as $64495, the place wave-c = wave-a (gray dotted arrow). As we speak, the crypto bought to as excessive as $64284. Shut sufficient?
Therefore, Bitcoin has set itself up for a picture-perfect EWP-based if/then situation: break again beneath $58128 and (inexperienced) wave-c -see Determine 1B- is underway because the wave-ii correction then morphs from easy into advanced. The best goal zone would then as soon as once more be roughly $53+/-2K (inexperienced rectangle). However, if the cryptocurrency decides to interrupt out and make new ATHs with out breaking down first, I need to settle for wave-ii was shallower than anticipated.
The correction, in that case, did the minimal (the orange rectangle in Determine 1B exhibits the potential vary of twond waves, whereas the pink rectangle exhibits the best vary), which is sufficient as a result of the markets don’t owe us something. Due to this fact I at all times “anticipate, monitor and regulate if vital.”
Backside line: My forecast from nearly two weeks the place I anticipated a pullback was right. Nevertheless, thus far, the retreat fell a bit in need of the best goal zone of $53+/-2K. $58K may have been all she wrote, and BTC might be within the beginning gates for wave-iii to $90K. If the cryptocurrency doesn’t break beneath $58128, it would immediately arrange such a rally. BTC should break beneath $46K to counsel one thing rather more bearish is afoot. This feature, albeit attainable, just isn’t my most popular path.
