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Analysis-Bitcoin futures highlight some pitfalls for new ETFs

by Crypto News
October 19, 2021
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Analysis-Bitcoin futures highlight some pitfalls for new ETFs
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By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The launch of the primary bitcoin futures change traded fund (ETF) on Tuesday marks a serious step towards legitimizing the cryptocurrency, however some ETF buyers could face larger prices in contrast with shopping for the digital forex itself.

FILE PHOTO: A illustration of the digital cryptocurrency Bitcoin is seen on this image illustration taken October 19, 2021. REUTERS/Edgar Su

Barring any last-minute objection from the U.S. Securities and Change Fee, the ProShares Bitcoin Technique ETF will start buying and selling on Tuesday. ProShares will likely be backed by the CME Group’s bitcoin futures as a substitute of the particular digital asset itself.

Its providing is anticipated to result in extra launches of futures-based ETFs within the coming days and weeks after years of regulatory roadblocks.

Market individuals general lauded the benefit and relative security of proudly owning an ETF as a substitute of shopping for bitcoin from cryptocurrency exchanges and brokers. Buyers gained’t have to fret about custody and securing their digital wallets, though analysts stated there are top-tier exchanges that supply these companies to their prospects as effectively.

“There isn’t a free lunch, nevertheless,” stated Martha Reyes, head of analysis at digital asset prime brokerage and change BEQUANT.

“An ETF based mostly on futures isn’t best as there’s a value to rolling into the futures contracts, given contango … translating into underperformance versus the underlying asset,” she stated.

Merchants sometimes roll over futures to modify from the short-term contract that’s approaching expiration to a different contract additional out in months. This rollover entails a price.

When futures are in so-called “contango,” a time period extra generally heard in commodity markets than monetary futures, costs are larger in longer-term contracts than on the entrance finish. Meaning as contracts method settlement day, the ETF should promote lower-priced futures and purchase higher-priced ones, which can erode returns each time contracts roll off.

“So one drawback is being solved, however at a price to the investor in poorer general return when in comparison with a number of the ETPs (change traded merchandise) in Europe,” stated Bradley Duke, chief govt officer at ETC Group, the most important supplier of ETPs in Europe.

ETPs in Europe which can be 100% backed with underlying bitcoin observe the latter’s spot worth extra persistently, Duke added.

FUTURES

A futures-based ETF worth is not going to essentially match the present worth of the underlying asset. Generally, futures ETFs based mostly on commodity property reminiscent of gold are inclined to underperform bodily ETFs, stated Mikkel Morch, govt director at crypto and digital property hedge fund ARK36.

Along with the chance of a futures-based bitcoin ETF underperforming bitcoin, it additionally comes with the price of the futures roll-over, some analysts stated.

All the identical, analysts consider buyers will nonetheless purchase the futures-based ETF regardless of the upper value.

“Bitcoin futures function underneath commodity change laws. Mutual funds and ETFs are regulated underneath the funding firm laws,” stated Karan Sood, CEO and managing director of Cboe Vest, an asset administration companion of derivatives change Cboe International Markets.

“Each these laws present robust investor protections. There’s a wealthy historical past of robust enforcement of such laws, which creates a excessive degree of economic stability and integrity.”

At a Monetary Occasions convention just a few weeks in the past, U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler repeated his help for bitcoin ETFs that will spend money on futures contracts as a substitute of the digital forex itself.

However bitcoin futures are topic to margin and collateral necessities in addition to different limits which will forestall the ETF from reaching its goal of producing returns, in keeping with ProShares’ prospectus. It’s an funding that’s fraught with threat particularly when the ETF’s worth declines.

Amongst fund managers who’ve utilized to launch bitcoin ETFs in america are the VanEck Bitcoin Belief, ProShares, Invesco, Valkyrie and Galaxy Digital Funds.

Late on Monday Invesco stated it was not planning to pursue the launch of a bitcoin futures ETF within the speedy near-term.

The Nasdaq on Friday accredited the itemizing of the Valkyrie Bitcoin Technique ETF, whereas Grayscale, the world’s largest digital forex supervisor, plans to transform its flagship product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Belief right into a spot bitcoin ETF, CNBC reported on Sunday.

Bitcoin late on Monday hovered close to a six-month excessive. The world’s largest cryptocurrency final stood at $62,104, not removed from its all-time peak of $64,895 hit in April.

Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Enhancing by Alden Bentley & Shri Navaratnam



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